Perhaps the Beginning of a Market Shift

Toronto market can change on a dime… Perhaps we are seeing start of a shift.

In the fall, listings sat on the market with no showings. One was lucky to get an offer. Market was tough. Towards the end of the year and the beginning of 2024 – houses that had been sitting, slowly started selling. Early January, in houses started gating a lot more showings. In many cases, buyers “woke up” and started buying. It appears that to some extent confidence in the real estate market is being restored. In hot areas where there has been little product there is pent up demand – in some cases multiple offers are back. We had a listing in a central area that ended up with 8 offers within 4 days of being listed and sold well over list.

It is not certain how this trend will continue. The high end now has a luxury tax – how this tax will influence the market is still to be seen. It is hard to say how condos will fare.

Hoping for a Brighter Real Estate Market

Hoping for a brighter 2024. This fall has been one of the slowest time periods in the real estate market that we have seen in many years. Showings on listings are down 60% from the previous time last year. As agents – we are feeling it. Homes that should have sold quickly are still sitting on the market with few showings. Buyers are out there but they are hesitant to jump and many are opting to wait to see what the new year brings.

Current Challenges and Opportunities in the Real Estate Market

The real estate market continues to exhibit sluggishness, characterized by a decrease in property showings and diminished enthusiasm among prospective buyers. Presently, only serious and highly motivated buyers are actively engaging in property searches. Sellers, who were accustomed to a seller’s market marked by a robust influx of potential buyers and swift sales, now find themselves facing anxiety as only a limited number of interested parties show interest upon the initial listing of their properties. Achieving a successful sale in today’s market necessitates the establishment of a realistic pricing strategy and, potentially, a willingness to invest time in the process.

Income property sales have been adversely affected by elevated interest rates and the associated carrying costs. A scarcity of buyers willing or financially able to manage income properties under the current interest rate climate has led to a reduction in property values, with income properties now often selling at a discount. While rental rates remain relatively high and the rental market remains robust, these rates may not be sufficiently elevated to fully offset the burdensome carrying costs associated with income properties.

All Over The Board

Real estate prices are all over the board. We thought that the market had cooled and in some areas almost died. However we see that homes are still selling and many over their list price. The market is not dead. Pricing and expectations just have to be real and not overinflated. What sold a couple of months ago will probably not sell for the same price now. This will create some new opportunities for some as it may be a good time to upgrade and/or buy.

State of Transition

Real estate market is in a state of transition. With more listings coming on the market, higher interest rates and buyers being a bit more hesitant in buying and paying too much we are seeing a readjustment in prices. Those that have bought at the peak of the market are having trouble selling for top dollar. Appraisals for those that paid too much for homes are coming in lower and those that can’t come up with more downpayment and stretched to buy could have a problem on closing. We need to keep pricing and expectations real.
Pricing depends on the property, Although we are seeing prices reflect more what sellers want rather than a lower price to attract interest, this is not a strategy for all properties. Those properties that are highly desirable may do better with a lower price. It all depends what the product is. Marketing and home preparation are key. You need to be the best one out there to sell and get top dollar.

Rental Competition

The rental market in Toronto is hot hot hot… with an influx of Ukrainians fleeing Ukraine they are looking for places to rent. Many are coming with money. Space is at a premium. When rentals come to market they have a number of people who are lined up ready to jump. Sometimes the Ukrainians don’t stand a chance. The competition is fierce and can be discouraging for all.

The group of Ukrainians coming in are also looking for jobs. Most are educated and ready to work hard. The service industry which has been so short on staff should be happy. For many the stay in Canada will be temporary. It won’t be easy.

Premium Homes

Premium prices for high end turn key homes on premium lots in premium locations. There are not too many homes in the city that have it all and it appears that the ones that do are getting record prices. Last week a home in Baby Point was listed for $8.5 mill and in 3 days attracted 3 bids selling for $9.6 mill. It had a fabulous ravine lot with a large tableland. The house was beautiful and the landscaping was spectacular. This is for sure a record price for the area and shows that if you do it right buyers appreciate it. The cost of building and renovating is so high now and takes so much time that turn key is worth paying up for in some buyers eyes.

Evolving Landscape

Toronto’s real estate landscape is evolving. It’s with some nostalgia that we see landmark Toronto buildings coming down to see brand new shiny condos being built in their place.

Bathurst and Bloor saw Honest Ed’s Warehouse come down and in its place a condo building. Now plans are proceeding to take down the Mirvish owned Princess of Wales theatre on King St to build two towers 73 and 74 stories tall.  This project will be designed by the renowned architect Frank Gehry and will include 2034 condo apartments, office space or a hotel and a new facility for OCAD University. It will be called Forma and pre-sales are to begin this year.

It’s a delicate balance of maintaining the spirit and soul of a city and yet providing the necessary living space so lacking in this city. We hope that the new Frank Gehry designed development on King St will be just as iconic as the theatre. Apparently it will be his tallest and largest project anywhere.

“Globeandmail.com, Sat April 2nd, 2022, A6”

Time to Compromise

The problem with buying a home is that the supply and selection have been so low that many buyers have not been able to find what they want. The idea of a “dream home” is almost a dream for most. Buyers don’t want to settle but they also don’t want to or can’t pay the price for what they want. And the market keeps going up. Many buyers have been looking for years.

We have always said – if you really want to buy a house, you will. In todays market you just have to compromise and compromise a lot. Selection is starting to look a bit better as we start the spring market.

Cracks in the Market

Taking a snapshot of current market is not that simple. Clients often ask us – if you had to guess what do you think will happen with our real estate market in the next year. This question is difficult to answer.

Currently it appears that the market remains very strong and a number of houses are getting very high numbers. However we have seen a few cracks in ”the crazy market” Not all houses in all areas are getting crazy prices. Some are selling for very rational prices and anything that is obviously overpriced is simply not selling. Condos are selling but are definitely not as hot as houses.

The advice to buyers and sellers is to buy and sell when the time is right for them and not to try and predict the timing. The last couple of years has shown that predicting the future is impossible.